Model of the effects of a flood in the Dender catchment, based on a risk methodology
Vanneuville, W.; De Maeyer, Ph.; Maeghe, K.; Mostaert, F. (2003). Model of the effects of a flood in the Dender catchment, based on a risk methodology. Bulletin of the Society of Cartography 37(2): 59-64
Even if all the dikes are heightened to resisting maximal historical flood, there will always be a certain danger for flooding near the navigable waterways in Flanders. Considering that, we believe that an approach of protection against inundations cannot be a protection against high water levels any more. In the future, the consequences of a flood must be taken into account by introducing a value for the damage This damage calculation is used as an essential element in the risk calculations. This risk level is calculated by means of an equation which contains the summation of the frequency of the observed inundation multiplied by the value of the damage caused by that inundation. In other words, the supplementary value caused by a flood with a specific return period is calculated by comparing it with the value of the damage caused by a flood with a smaller return period. The use for society of the risk model is that an objective comparison of the impression of security can be made by means of a mathematical method that can be used in the different hydrographical catchments. Another advantage is the possibility to calculate the risk in the present situation and compare it with future scenarios when the morphology and the bathymetry of the fluvial system (due to dredging, heightening of dikes…) or the land use of the inundated land are changed.
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