Flood modeling for risk evaluation: a MIKE FLOOD sensitivity analysis
Vanderkimpen, P.; Peeters, P. (2008). Flood modeling for risk evaluation: a MIKE FLOOD sensitivity analysis, in: Altinakar, M. et al. (Ed.) Proceedings of the International Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics, Cesme, Izmir, Turkey, September 3-5, 2008: River flow 2008. pp. 2335-2344
The flood risk for a section of the Belgian coastal plain was evaluated by means of dynamically linked 1D (breach) and 2D (floodplain) hydraulic models. First, a one-at-a-time factor screening was performed to evaluate the relative importance of various model processes and parameters. Subsequently, a systematic sensitivity analysis was added to establish the contribution of the most influential factors (breach growth and surface roughness) to hydraulic modeling uncertainty. Finally, the uncertainty associated with hydraulic modeling was compared to the uncertainty associated with coastal defense failure analysis. The former was found to be considerable, but nevertheless small compared to the latter.
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