A probabilistic detailed level approach to flood risk assessment in the Scheldt estuary
Blanckaert, J.; Audoorn, L. (2005). A probabilistic detailed level approach to flood risk assessment in the Scheldt estuary, in: Proceedings of the Nineth International Symposium on Stochastic Hydraulics (ISSH), Nijmegen, The Netherlands, 23-25 May 2005.
It is commonly understood that computational limitations imply the adoption of considerablesimplifications in flood risk analysis. Those simplifications focus either on the hydrodynamic model, e.g.through substitution by a response surface, or on the boundary conditions, e.g. by ignoring some variables ordrawing a limited number of design storms with a set probability. Drawbacks of this approach include an unreliablequantification of uncertainties and a questionable extrapolation to extremely low probabilities. Thispaper covers an investigation towards the achievability of a Monte Carlo approach for flood risk assessmentby means of a hydrodynamic model. Efforts were made to stick to the well-known physical laws and interrelationships.This contribution fits in the framework of a societal cost-benefit analysis of flood protectionmeasures in the Scheldt basin. It can be concluded that, if computing power is substantially available, thequasi Monte Carlo method is a reliable and comprehensible tool for flood risk assessment.
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