Scientific assistance towards a probabilistic formulation of hydraulic boundary conditions: testcase voor het Scheldebekken
Leyssen, G.; Blanckaert, J.; Pereira, F.; Nossent, J.; Mostaert, F. (2019). Scientific assistance towards a probabilistic formulation of hydraulic boundary conditions: testcase voor het Scheldebekken. Versie 3.0. WL Rapporten, 00_144_8. Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium: Antwerpen. XII, 89 + 65 p. bijl. pp.
Part of: WL Rapporten. Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium: Antwerpen. , more
A methodology for the probabilistic formulation of hydraulic boundary conditions is tested within a test case for the tidal influenced Sea Scheldt basin. This extensive basin contains multiple navigable waterways and stretches over Belgium and the Netherlands. The basin is influenced by both upstream and downstream extremities. A hydrodynamic model in the Mike11 software is made available by Flanders Hydraulics Research. The model has a downstream water level boundary in Vlissingen and 42 upstream discharge boundaries. The influence of wind speed on the water levels is also included in the model. Hydrological models are used to generate discharge time series for the upstream boundaries. Measurement data is available for the downstream water level, wind speed and wind direction. Synthetic events are constructed for both current conditions and a feature scenario that includes the effects of climate change. The influence of climate change is taken into account by perturbation of the rainfall, evaporation and water level data.Based on a correlation analysis between the different upstream and downstream boundaries, a nested Copula structure has been constructed. This nested Copula structure ensures that the combination of upstream and downstream events is considered without compromising on the level of detail of the description of upstream or downstream events itself, while keeping the number of simulations acceptable. The frequencies as determined by the individual Copula’s have to be rescaled in order to comply with the nested Copula structure. The resulting water levels from the synthetic events compare well with the results of a long term simulation, proving that synthetic events are capable of determining and extrapolating return levels for hydraulic models with multiple interactions between boundary conditions.
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